Football

Bears Week 3 – Matchups to Watch: Something’s In The Air

He did it again. “DJ Yung Milwaukee” lent his talents for another tandem matchups post from your resident Bears heads at FFUD.

“Big shouts out to my boy Wes for letting me drop another guest verse on a Bears positional preview; if our tandem breakdown of the Bears/Broncos was the FFUD version of Mariah Carey’s iconic “Fantasy” remix with ODB, let’s try to make this her even more legendary collab with Jay-Z on “Heartbreaker”.”

Enjoy. 

Tony on the Bears Defense vs the Racial Slur’s Offense

How ugly could Monday get? Writing about Washington’s offense is difficult. Case Keenum makes Joe Flacco look like Joe Theismann, and though I don’t want Case Keenum’s leg to explode it’s not hard to see Khalil Mack going full L-T on an offensive line missing its star LT. Statistics show that from 2010-2019 the average amount of games it takes for a first round quarterback to make his first start is 4.5, and if this game is a bloodbath (which it has the potential to be), it wouldn’t be too far of a reach to suggest there’s a chance Dwayne Haskins makes an appearance in garbage time.

Speaking of garbage time, this Washington team has gotten a lot of their offensive numbers in situations where they are down multiple scores late in games this season. So, the question is: which Washington offense shows up? Is it the offense we saw in the first half against Philly, or the offense that has played their other six awful quarters of football this season? The answer will be found through the air; “Scary” Terry McLaurin looks like a steal in the 3rd round of this years’ draft. He has speed to go over the top, finds the holes in the zone well, and with Chuck Pagano’s designed man-blitzes, look for Keenum to test the Bears with the deep ball.

Outside of Scary Terry, the skill position players on this team are a real haunted house of mediocrity. Paul Richardson isn’t a threat, Vernon Davis will put up a solid  three-catch, 24-yard performance, and the sun has set on All Day. Chris Thompson is an issue coming out of the backfield, so look for the Bears to drop down a safety or ask Buster Skrine to cover the backfield receiving specialist.

Washington’s run offense permits a pathetic average of 0.31 yards before first contact on running plays, so the Bears up front will feed. The right side of their offensive line looks so bad that any two fans sitting in FedEx field that Dan Snyder hasn’t personally banned might be able to do a better job, given they’ve had a couple $8 beers and are wearing hogs’ noses. The Bears defense is gonna steamroll these nerds.

Wes on Mitch Trubisky vs the Racial Slur’s Defense

Lets look at some numbers for this week’s exercise:

Mitchell Trubisky: 68.1, 39.1, 36.6, 15.1, 33.1 and 3.05

Racial Slurs Defense: 455, 78.3, 6, 168, 68, 34:54

Beep boop beep beep, numbers! Okay, so you’re not a computer and these all just look like squiggly lines and decimals. But here’s the story they tell…..

Trubs is bottom-10 in the league QB rankings with an overall accuracy-percentage of 68.1. This number drops to 39.1, still bottom 10, on passes that travel beyond the first down marker. Moves these numbers to 3rd down plays only, and you get a disastrous 61.1 accuracy %, which has translated to a comically bad 33.1 QB rating and 3.05 yards per attempt. That ain’t it.

Enter the Washington defense, just what the doctor ordered (or so Matt Nagy hopes). Washington is allowing an average of 455 yards/week early in the season and opposing QBs are a league-leading 78.3 in completion %. They’ve also allowed six passing scores thus far, good for 31st in the league. All of this shapes up to help improve the Bears sputtering offense, but how?

Trubs does lead the league in, wait for it…….targets to his RBs. By a lot. 36.6% of his targets have gone to RBs this season, a full 4% more than any other QB. Compare that with a sub-50% target share for his WR, good for second to last to only Baltimore (who lean HEAVILY tight end). Monday night presents the best opportunity to level this disparity out. Dak Prescott laid out the blueprint in Week 2: 25 of his 30 passes travels 15 yards or fewer through the air, continually abusing the poor coverage and soft zones to stack completions.

The Washington defense is also 31st in rushing yards allowed per game at 168. Herein lies another way to get Mitch and the offense going, through establishing the run and then exploiting the secondary through play-action. Mitch has only thrown out of play-action 15.1% of the time this season for 72 yards, more numbers that put him among the bottom third of the league. Week 2 in Denver saw Nagy lean heavily on the run after basically abandoning it against Green Bay. A more balanced play calling plan should open up the opportunity for big plays via play-action, again something everyone saw Dak do against this defense last week. That successful balanced attack shouldn’t be tough to do against a team that’s currently averaging 68 defensive snaps and 34:54 on the field each week.

Of course, the Washington defense could be looking at Nagy, Mitch and Co. and thinking the same thing – here’s the week that we right the ship against a bottom tier offense. Something’s gotta give between these two bumbling units, and which side prevails/how they execute will tell us if Nagy knows what he’s doing and if Mitch is capable enough to not waste this Chicago defense.

Passing stats from https://nocheckdowns.com/

 

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